Russian Aggression Towards the Ukraine By Owen Riel

How do we respond?

On November 25th 2018, three Ukrainian ships attempted to enter the Azov sea, but were attacked and raided by Russian warships. All 24 Ukrainian sailors on these ships were captured by the Russians. They have since been imprisoned, and the conditions of their return to Ukraine are uncertain.

To understand the significance of this event, it is important to know three key facts about how Russia and Ukraine have interacted with each other in the last few years.

In 2003 the Ukrainian and Russian governments signed an agreement stating that the Azov sea is shared territory, and both countries must have full access to it. This agreement is still in effect.

In 2014 the Russian government encouraged uprisings in southern Ukraine in order to take over a strategically important region, called Crimea. The population of Crimea is mostly ethnically Russian, which the Russian government used to stage a referendum that most of the western world agreed was illegal. However, Crimea has been under full Russian control since that vote in 2014.

Both Russian forces and NATO forces are perpetually stationed across the Russian borders, and have been for many years. In 2017, over 7000 troops were deployed by NATO and its member countries to the Russian border.

What this means is that Russia shows a pattern of aggression towards Ukraine, and each step of the pattern violates international law just a little bit more. It also shows that tensions between NATO and Russia have been high for some time. Even if you were to ignore any tensions regarding Ukraine or NATO, the United States and Russia have a great deal of tension between them.

Earlier this year, the Syrian government, backed by the Russian government, unleashed a chemical attack on it’s own civilians, killing innocent people. In response the United States bombed three locations that were related to these attacks. This caused relations between the US and Russia to heat up. Luckily, nothing too dangerous came of this and the situation began to cool down again. However, this is just one example of the United States and Russia “butting heads” on an international scale.

The Azov sea issue, however, is more serious than other events largely because of the nature of Russia’s actions, and the conditions surrounding them. For one, it is the Russian government creating the issue, not simply a Russian supported country. It is also the second time in a matter of years that the Russians have attacked Ukraine, and in such a violent way. The reaction of the Ukrainian government is also concerning. The Ukrainian government has declared martial law, which grants it’s military much more control over day-to-day operations in Ukraine. They have released statements saying that they fear a full scale invasion by Russia.

If Ukraine were a NATO member, an invasion of Ukraine would mean a massive war, between NATO and Russia. Ukraine is not a NATO member however, which means that they are not necessarily entitled to defense by NATO’s member states. It is also unlikely that the west would simply allow Russia to invade Ukraine. So there really is no telling what may come of an invasion. One thing is certain, it would not be good. Yet, it is not certain that Russia intends to invade Ukraine at all, so this is all speculation based on a hypothetical event.

There is still the issue of how the west should respond to Russia seizing the Ukrainian ships. One common form of “punishment” are sanctions. Sanctions involve blocking a country from receiving certain goods or materials in order to weaken them economically or militarily. In some ways, this is the least extreme and least aggressive option. The contrary option to this would be military action from some members of the west. If this were to happen, it would be unclear which countries would decide to join, but the United States would certainly lead the effort and the United Kingdom would very likely play a role. The west could also try to negotiate the release of the soldiers, and control of the sea with Russia, but it is unlikely that the Russians will be willing to budge on any either of these issues.

What lies ahead is uncertain. What is certain, is that a solution needs to be found- soon- before tensions heat up and before Russia gets any more aggressive with Ukraine and the west as a whole.